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Program

ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points Programme

Supports United Kingdom teams building forecasting systems for resilient decision making under uncertainty.

Advanced Research and Invention AgencyUnited KingdomGrant

ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points Programme sits under the UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency. It is a one-off grant programme for UK and international teams, with awards from £500,000 to £8 million and a median actual award of £3 million. The programme targets climate, sensors, and mathematical modeling at TRL 2-5, with no matching requirement. The record puts the total programme budget at £81 million, and the first cohort covers 27 teams, which signals a concentrated, challenge-led competition rather than an open-ended call. It is designed to back high-ambition work where the technical problem is as important as the delivery path. The fit is a multidisciplinary team building an early warning system for climate tipping points, or a closely related piece of enabling science. Strong proposals should be ambitious but technically coherent, with enough modelling, sensing, or systems depth to justify a large grant and a single decision round. Because the program is one-off, the application has to stand on one tightly defined concept rather than a broad pipeline.

Max award£8M
Realistic median£3M
Success rate5–10%
Decision time—

No upcoming rounds verified. Cadence: One-off.

Last verified: 11 May 2026Source: aria.org.uk