Horizon Biodiversity: Nature-Positive Futures
Funds two €5M research consortia building tools that map ecosystem responses to climate and policy pressures, verified in real biogeographic case studies.
Europe wants to know what happens to nature under different futures, and right now the tools to answer that are scattered. Biodiversity, climate, food, water, energy and the economy usually get modelled separately, even though a change in one ripples through all the others. This topic funds building the connected science that's missing: scenarios and prediction models that treat Europe's ecosystem…
Designing and scientifically developing three linked pieces for European biodiversity policy: integrated scenarios, ecosystem prediction models, and model intercomparison experiments, covering terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems across EU Member States and Associated Countries. The framework has to link ecosystem function to key economic sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, quantify uncertainty, and test resilience and tipping points under multiple plausible futures shaped by climate change, pollution and socio-economic shifts. Development is verified through case studies covering at least two European biogeographic regions, and the work has to test the IPBES Nature Futures Framework for European use and align its modelling approach with IPBES and IPCC international assessments.
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