Horizon Disaster Resilience: Multi-Hazard Risk Forecasting
Funds two €4M projects building one forecasting system out of separate hazard models, tested with national disaster-response authorities.
Disasters rarely arrive alone. A flood weakens a levee that a storm later breaks; an earthquake cuts a power line that then takes down the pumps a water system needs. Most hazard-forecasting tools still look at one hazard at a time, which misses exactly the chain reactions that do the most damage. This topic funds fixing that.
A winning project takes forecasting models that today each cover one h…
Building and validating an integrated forecasting system that merges separate single-hazard models — meteorological, geophysical and technological — into one platform that predicts how hazards like floods, heatwaves, droughts, landslides and earthquakes cascade and compound across sectors. The system has to combine real-time data, AI-driven analytics and remote sensing, produce holistic risk and resilience metrics covering physical, economic and social impact, and stress-test the interdependencies of critical infrastructure such as energy, water, transport and telecommunications. The project must reach TRL 6 by the end, and has to run with named national and regional disaster-response authorities as full partners, not just as end users.
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